Wednesday, December 12, 2007

H5N1

In all the discussions of H5N1 I have not seen any mention of the probability of bird to wild non-human primate cross infection. Discussions about avian in vivo mutations that would allow easy human-to-human spread seem to me to restrict unnaturally the virus’ path to dominance.

 

We believe that HIV is descended from SIV. Co-infection with H5N1 and SIV is likely to occur before any human flu pandemic and genetic exchange between the two is likely to be disastrous for humanity in terms of both the HIV and the flu pandemics. Such a scenario predicts recurrent, not singular, flu pandemics with repeated high mortality.

 

For the powers that be: a flu pandemic is closer than anticipated and will likely be worse and recurring.

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