Showing posts with label Decisions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Decisions. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 02, 2014

Cognitive Bias

"When we attempt to understand past events, we implicitly test the hypotheses or rules we use both to interpret and to anticipate the world around us. If, in hindsight, we systematically underestimate the surprises that the past held and holds for us, we are subjecting those hypotheses to inordinately weak tests and, presumably, finding little reason to change them."

Fischhoff

Saturday, November 10, 2007

Thinking

Thinking is a skill.

 

“Think better” in on the Personal-Development node of my Life-Map. I think that I should write about the implications of accepting thinking as a skill at some time; sooner rather than later.

Sunday, September 16, 2007

Canaries and Zebras

Common things occur commonly, but as a group uncommon things are also frequent. Exactly how frequent they are we do not know. We do know that our estimates are biased under-estimates. Similarly, randomised control trials are not as unbiased as we would hope….

Thursday, September 06, 2007

DNAR

I had an 83 year old female who presented with a large, rapidly progressive, intracerebral and intraventricular bleed. She was on warfarin and presented an hour after a sudden collapse already persistently comatose. The extent of the bleed made it inoperable.

 

In situations where an attempt at resuscitation would be futile we decide and document that when cardiac or respiratory arrest occurs, it won’t be treated. Such decisions preserve resources, emotions and patients’ dignity. Making such decisions can be extremely difficult especially considering that family and caregiver sentiments are not medico-legally relevant. We like to get agreement from those close to the dying patient but initiating or terminating treatment is not a democratic process. Wide agreement helps share the emotional burden.

 

DNAR orders are, however, not binary: there are many interventions between doing nothing and providing pressor support with IPPV. Bodies need fluids, electrolytes, calories, vitamins, trace elements, oxygen and movement. They also need to get rid of wastes. Medication related side effects and adverse reactions need to be managed and disease complications need to be anticipated and prevented or mitigated.

 

The medical registrar to whom I referred agreed that death was imminent and inevitable; he nevertheless prescribed vitamin k as anti-coumadin. I asked why and he said that she may have been continuing to bleed and that the treatment would stop the bleeding. He felt morally or ethically obliged to close the gate after the horse had bolted. If the treatment would make any difference, it would serve only to delay death; it would not reverse the coma, relieve pain or in any other way make dying easier.

 

I pointed out that not giving vitamin k could – not definitely would – hasten death and that it was an acceptable omission similar in essence to treating cancer pain with high dose opiates that ultimately hastened death. In both cases, death was not an aim, but the end of an inevitable process. He remained unconvinced.

 

As humans we are inconsistent. For the most part it does not matter. In matters such as these, I believe it does.

Monday, August 06, 2007

Where should people die?

Should people die at home or in hospices or in acute care hospitals? Who should decide? When should the decision be made? What should inform it? And when should it be reviewed?

Sunday, September 24, 2006

A thing is as it appears

This is a truism. This is a falsehood. A falsehood is not the opposite of a truism.

Simple statements are easily profound because they invite deeper engagement to lend them gravity. And truths are often simple.

We know that all that glitters is not gold but parsimony has proven utility which is why we need, consciously, to guard against it.

Appearances are everything.

We react to aggression and fear automatically with deeply ingrained biological responses. They are faster and more immediate than anything related to conscious thought.

Tuesday, May 09, 2006

Taxonomies and Tagging

Posted to 3L Epiphany

The idea of a taxonomy is very interesting: a conceptual framework always helps understanding.
Taxonomy in biology makes sense because most organisms are related to those that came before. The same cannot be said of the law or blogs.
Tagging has more utility, especially for amorphous materials that can be construed in multiple ways. Tagging also allows for a more intuitive generation of concept maps.
I suggest that you find a way to let readers tag law related blogs in such a way that you (or they) can create concept maps and refine the tags.
Many have already written about the greater utility of tags compared to categories.
I do hope you find this useful.

Saturday, April 29, 2006

Judgement

I’ve been thinking about trust and judgment. These are essentials that are difficult to learn and develop and teach. They are more important than data, information and knowledge. They are more tenuous and more pervasive.

Trust removes friction; so does good judgement. And friction, generally, represents a waste.

Wednesday, May 25, 2005

How good is your thermostat?

Thermostats adjust temperatures taking into account the environmental temperatures due to the weather. Good thermostats, using fuzzy logic, learn to bank oscillations so that they over- and undershoot less widely and less often. If the target temperature is 21 deg Celsius, a very good thermostat might operate in the range 20-21,5 deg Celsius. As they get better they might narrow the range to 20,8-21,2 deg Celsius.

This is another instance of OODA: observe-orientate-decide-act.

“How good is your thermostat?” is shorthand for how flexible are you and are you reactive or proactive to feedback inputs? Remember, physiological systems use multiple feedback loops – some long, some short: they are nature’s thermostats, both reactive and proactive in managing homeostasis.

So, how good is your thermostat?